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Thread: Brexit

  1. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by Planters
    Why?
    Because they are the people who are most likely to be affected by the inevitable (and warned of today by the Chancellor) further austerity measures and 'tightening of belts'. I work in public services (social), I know what austerity has done. We felt like their might have been some light at the end of the tunnel in the face of dramatic cuts year on year for the last however many years (with no real effect on our borrowing it seems....)
    Who knows where the next ones will come from. It is most certainly NOT going to make our NHS better...

    Those who rely solely or partially on benefits will be hit hardest. Those with no reliance and a bit of capacity to suck up mortgage/rent increases will feel it, but not as badly as those at the bottom - who are also the ones most likely to have been duped by the Sun, etc into thinking that its going to turn their world around [for the better]. Even the former Sun editor has come and said he was wrong.
    Lets remember, we have a Tory government, they haven't been too 'giving' to the little people in recent years (and still managed to get their vote at the last General election, my mind still boggles about that - maybe that set a precedent for the Brexit vote...)

    In the long run, who knows, but now there are years of further pain, our rating lowered, borrowing gets more expensive, less money in the pot for social welfare, etc, etc, etc.
    They certainly don't seem to be doing much to encourage the home grown industry to flourish and therefore pick up the wage shortfall that would allow them to reduce the tax credits they pay out - and they seem to want to cut off the various sources of EU funding that do just that.

    As I said, I seriously doubt it'll happen - or certainly not in the in/out way people expect. I may even make a wager...
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    You are using Bonetti's defense against me, ah?

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  2. #112
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    This is an interesting piece.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-36641390

    I've also heard that all of this £350m savings' stuff is really just nonsense - if we take the Norway model (or something similar) it'll likely end up with us paying similar amounts (if not more - I think we have a good deal currently) to still use the market.

    As a remainer (did you detect that) I'd really like for somebody to tell me how things are going to be better, because I'm afraid I'm not seeing it currently (or perhaps I'm not looking for it, due to confirmation bias).
    Aside from some flag waving and cries of 'We got our country back!' (and some of 'Get out and go back to where you came from you dirty immigrant!' - charming!) just about everything else has been a bit of a downer.
    Its become a bit of a comedy now.
    Frikkin Lasers
    http://www.frikkinlasers.co.uk

    You are using Bonetti's defense against me, ah?

    I thought it fitting, considering the rocky terrain.

  3. #113
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    Because they are the people who are most likely to be affected by the inevitable (and warned of today by the Chancellor) further austerity measures
    Brittan sends something like 350,000,000 Pounds/week to the EU and receives less than 1/2 back and this negative flow, although not always of this magnitude, has been the case for 40 years. The EU costs Brittan money aside from its effects on the local economy.

    Uncontrolled and huge immigration of largely lower skilled and often unskilled and illiterate migrants places a burden on all sectors of social services including the NHS. This is a net cost. This reduces resources for British citizens at all levels, but is most painful for those that are most dependent.

    They certainly don't seem to be doing much to encourage the home grown industry to flourish
    Duh! No,they do not and that is why the surprising (to some) support that Brexit recieved from the working class who are struggling to find jobs.

    I've also heard that all of this £350m savings' stuff is really just nonsense - if we take the Norway model
    Agreed, but don't take that model. Take the Swiss model. How do the Swiss trade with the US and for that matter how does Norway? Are there tariffs between these nations? The British are now free to make agreements with everyone including the EU and without prejudice.

    In the long run, who knows, but now there are years of further pain, our rating lowered, borrowing gets more expensive, less money in the pot for social welfare, etc, etc, etc.
    This problem extends well beyond Brittan. Borrowing SHOULD be more expensive. The policy of the central banks/ federal reserve to print money in order to shore up the financial markets is devaluing currencies and undermining the savings of everyone. This is a stealth tax on every responsible individual and organization in order to transfer value from savings into the governments to allow them to continue to run at huge deficits. It will crash.

    As a remainer (did you detect that) I'd really like for somebody to tell me how things are going to be better,
    I did detect that, but I didn't want to blow your cover. This is a huge question as it's like asking about the comprehensive future, but I would use the analogy of an individual's approach to their own future. After leaving school you decide to remain at home, dependent on a parent's support and protection, giving over some autonomy and freedom to this relationship. Alternatively, you could leave home, face the financial risks of earning a living, accumulating experience in the wold and learning skills that allow you to support yourself. Your contribution to the world, your self image and your potential will be better realized with the second scenario.

    'Get out and go back to where you came from you dirty immigrant!' - charming!)
    I never, ever used the term "dirty".

  4. #114
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    Agreed, but don't take that model. Take the Swiss model. How do the Swiss trade with the US and for that matter how does Norway? Are there tariffs between these nations? The British are now free to make agreements with everyone including the EU and without prejudice.
    In terms of the EU, I think this is fundamentally wrong. The fabled £350m/week is not going to materialise as free money at any point.

    From another forum I frequent...
    natiional debt is 1.5 trillion.
    Losing our AAA credit rating could cost us 10 times what EU membership costs just in increased interest rates.
    To try to stop financial chaos, the Bank of England is ready to pump £250 billion into the financial markets.
    We're potentially going to spend the next 10-20 years worth of what EU membership costs just sorting this mess out.
    Leaving the EU does not make sense in any way financially. We will not save any money, it will cost us more.
    There may be other valid reasons for wanting to leave, but its not money.

    They have been very clear that if we want to have a deal with the EU, then it involves terms (aside from the free movement one) and costs. They have already made it clear that we will get no 'special' deal. I understand the Swiss still pay large sums into the EU for access to the market.

    Certainly, the free movement clause still applies to the Swiss, so the immigration issue ain't going away...

    Quote Originally Posted by http://ukandeu.ac.uk/is-the-swiss-model-a-brexit-solution/
    Four lessons from the Swiss model may help us see more clearly how the UK’s future following an exit from the EU would look. The first lesson can be drawn from the ad-hoc negotiations, which have shaped the Swiss model. The negotiations were long. It took Switzerland six years to negotiate the first package of sectoral agreements after Swiss voters rejected the agreement on the EEA in 1992. Switzerland was able to gain selective market access to the single market only on condition of accepting the EU’s free movement of persons principle, which was one of the reasons for the Swiss rejection of the EEA.


    Quote Originally Posted by Planters
    Uncontrolled and huge immigration of largely lower skilled and often unskilled and illiterate migrants places a burden on all sectors of social services including the NHS. This is a net cost. This reduces resources for British citizens at all levels, but is most painful for those that are most dependent.
    That may be the case, but given that all indications so far seem to suggest we won't actually change immigration for EU members, where is the win? For those outside of the EU, its business as usual in terms of immigration I would think, unless we change it, which we could've done anyway, without all this kerfuffle.

    Even if we can reduce the burden from migrants, as I mentioned previously, will the negative financial impacts of leaving the EU actually mean the NHS, etc are still underfunded and therefore the service continues to get worse for the people using it? Sorry, I mean the poorer segments of society who can't afford some private healthcare to workaround the problem. Or indeed any public healthcare once the Tories privatise the crap out of it.


    In the long run, looking at our (personal) situation, I suspect we'll be alright. They won't deport my wife and we'll get along ok with things. But I do have a social conscience, and I feel like the little people have been screwed once again, under the pretence that they are going to make their lot better. This is going to lead to years of bad feeling and fuel the social divide this union so doesn't need. IMHO (naturally)


    Quote Originally Posted by Planters
    I never, ever used the term "dirty".
    Spoken as a true Native American presumably...
    Frikkin Lasers
    http://www.frikkinlasers.co.uk

    You are using Bonetti's defense against me, ah?

    I thought it fitting, considering the rocky terrain.

  5. #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by planters View Post
    Why?



    Who in Brittan is rushing anything? The exit was supposed to take 2 years.

    Rush vs stall. Both tactics to thwart the will of the people. They voted for a particular choice and now the move by those who lost or did not participate for a second referendum, Months ago, Cameron promised (when his party was ahead in the poles) either way, just one vote. Now, that his side lost, the call for a second referendum.

    Look at all this wailing and gnashing of teeth. This was sold as a trade organization and so, why such a bitter fight to leave it? The answer is simple. It has morphed without the consent of the people into an unaccountable, foreign governing body. This was a pan European coup in the making. Remember Junkers was waiting for after the referendum to push for an EU army. Are you kidding, for a trade organization?
    A European Superstate was always on the cards. The Socialists have been wanting this to counter right wing America for a long time. There have been warnings of this in the UK right back to the Thatcher era in the 80's. She always warned the aim was political union and a single EU superstate ruled from Brussels:



    As for Brexit, it's turned into a joke. All the papers that wanted it have now rounded on those who supported leaving and said they can't deliver what they promised. There are calls for a 2nd vote. The ex-PM has failed to activate the get out clause and is meeting other European leaders "for talks" (I personally wonder if this is talking strategy for getting Britain opinion back in on a 2nd vote as why would someone who's resigned still be representing the country?). The Government are in my opinion engineering trouble with the economy etc to change the opinion of the people so they can win a 2nd vote (1/2 of what happened to the currency is in my opinion because traders were up all night gambling on the result and lost trillions). Many MP's are refusing to vote in favour in Parliament even though the people voted out. The people who voted in have started a petition with 2.5 Million signatures for a 2nd vote because they didn't like the result of the 1st. So much for democracy. The trouble is in this country, no one will stand up and be counted. If such a thing happened in the US, I've little doubt millions of US citizens would be sat on the White House lawn demanding democracy and an end to corruption. In the UK, the rich trample and the middle and lower classes just accept it. There's not been so much as a single banner or protest. The only people shouting are those who lost the vote.

    If we're not back in Europe within the month I'd be very surprised with the way it's going.
    Last edited by White-Light; 06-28-2016 at 11:07.

  6. #116
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    In terms of the EU, I think this is fundamentally wrong. The fabled £350m/week is not going to materialise as free money at any point.
    I never said that the 350m was free money. I am aware of the controversial "Boris Bus", it's a small world. Rather, I am speaking from a point of simple economics. Britain sends 350m to Brussels each weak and receives roughly half in return. The net 180m is British money that will be available to the British people. This may be spent wisely or not, but it represents a resource that CAN be spent on public services such as the NHS. I am countering your statement that Brexit will hit the most dependent hardest.

    They have been very clear that if we want to have a deal with the EU, then it involves terms (aside from the free movement one) and costs. They have already made it clear that we will get no 'special' deal.
    "THEY" are no longer the sole dictators regarding any deal. That is the point. They are now one party in a negotiation and no doubt, they can and will posture. Their fear campaign for Remain makes it clear that this should be expected. Even member nations have indicated they will oppose EU retaliatory actions against Britian that could hurt commerce.

    That may be the case, but given that all indications so far seem to suggest we won't actually change immigration for EU members
    Why? This was a central complaint of the Brexit supporters and as such is a central issue for the British Government going forward. Brexit won. Why would the government ignore the will of the majority of the voters? Do they want to be voted out of office? Do they feel they can continue to ignore the will of their citizens?

    Even if we can reduce the burden from migrants, as I mentioned previously, will the negative financial impacts of leaving the EU actually mean the NHS, etc are still underfunded and therefore the service continues to get worse for the people using it?
    These are two separate issues. Reducing the burden from migrants will allow the existing resources to be spent on British citizens. You assume that leaving the EU will have negative financial impacts. The NET financial impact may very well be positive.

    natiional debt is 1.5 trillion.
    Losing our AAA credit rating could cost us 10 times what EU membership costs just in increased interest rates.
    To try to stop financial chaos, the Bank of England is ready to pump £250 billion into the financial markets.
    We're potentially going to spend the next 10-20 years worth of what EU membership costs just sorting this mess out.
    Leaving the EU does not make sense in any way financially. We will not save any money, it will cost us more.
    There may be other valid reasons for wanting to leave, but its not money.
    This is extremely speculative. 10-20 years? Why not 100 years? The Bank of England stated publicly that it was prepared to pump money into the financial markets to dispel fears that they were unprepared to buffer these markets. These markets are currently way over inflated and as such are unstable. Their dependence on perception rather than fundamental value is what makes these central banks so important.

    The EU government does not manufacture, invent or build anything. It has become a burdensome extra layer of government sold as a solution to deal with the effects of too-big governments on the national level.


    I never, ever used the term "dirty".
    Spoken as a true Native American presumably...
    Thank you...I think?

  7. #117
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    If we're not back in Europe within the month I'd be very surprised with the way it's going.

    If you are, you will face a constitutional crisis. I would be very surprised if this happens

  8. #118
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    If you are, you will face a constitutional crisis. I would be very surprised if this happens
    I wouldn't - the British establishment aren't really known for delivering on promises after a referendum or anything else, really... See "The Vow" and the Scottish Referendum for more on that...

    Why? This was a central complaint of the Brexit supporters and as such is a central issue for the British Government going forward. Brexit won. Why would the government ignore the will of the majority of the voters? Do they want to be voted out of office? Do they feel they can continue to ignore the will of their citizens?
    See above - the politicians will do what suits them - they don't care about what the people want because the people will do shit all about it and even if they did do anything about it the politicians are still going to land cushy, well paying jobs as "consultants". Not that I agree with the outcome of the Referendum - I don't actually have an opinion either way (And wasn't granted a vote anyway ... British Citizen but whatever, I don't count apparently) - Anyway, if they ignore the referendum results there should be protests (In England anyway, Scotland voted to stay...) because clearly democracy isn't working if that's the case. Can't just ignore the will of the people if it doesn't suit you - but won't be surprised if they do. My guess is they'll end up staying and negotiating some new deal.

  9. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by White-Light View Post
    The people who voted in have started a petition with 2.5 Million signatures for a 2nd vote because they didn't like the result of the 1st. So much for democracy.
    The 2nd vote rumour has shown to be a scam and is now being investigated by the police in the UK. For my mind the Uk is full of either sore losers or bad voters

  10. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diachi View Post



    In England anyway, Scotland voted to stay...)

    Sorry the Scotch , sorry got confused with your only export, scotts,voted to stay in the Uk recently. This is the issue over time, minority, and broke areas of the Uk run away from from difficult decisions. Just my 10p or 10c for our US cousins

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